The Future of Sports Broadcasting: Five Scenarios that may be shaping the next decade - PART 1

Just before I head to Amsterdam for IBC and prepare myself on what I want to find out about, my central question is: Where are we going with Live Sports.

"Sport is now the only mass audience aggregator left for the media sector. It is the last place, in a world of video on demand (VOD), for broadcasters to generate a sizeable live audience. - Roger Mitchell - Sport's perfect storm

The rise of global streaming platforms, the reach for younger audiences, and the relentless pressure to monetize live events are reshaping how football, basketball, and other sports reach its fans. In just a few years, the ecosystem could look radically different from the one we know today and raises big questions about traditional players, technology, strategy, but most importantly: the fan experience.

In dozens of conversations over the past year, I’ve heard versions of the same question: what’s next? And in this piece I wanted to share the first three potential futures that are already taking shape — scenarios that could define the next 5–7 years of live sports.

This is part 1 of an opinion piece, and there are surely other ways this could play out. But if it gives you some food for thought, I would love to hear about it. This first part will explore three very evolved scenarios. the other

1.   Platform Consolidation – The Age of a Few Giants

A world where three to five global platforms dominate the live sports landscape— maybe Amazon Prime, DAZN, Apple, Netflix, and YouTube/Google. In this scenario, sports broadcasting is no longer fragmented; it is a highly concentrated premium market.

Rights Model concentrates

Exclusive, pan-European rights deals become the norm. Rather than selling rights country-by-country, federations and leagues strike continent-spanning agreements, effectively concentrating the audience into a few subscription pools. Traditional broadcasters, once the big giants of live sport, are relegated to content aggregators or distribution partners, relying on sub-licensed feeds.

Content & Formats

• Full matches are locked behind premium subscriptions, appealing to die-hard fans who demand complete coverage.

• Snackable content, such as highlights, TikTok-style clips, or interactive streams, targets younger audiences and casual viewers, ensuring fan engagement even among those unwilling to pay for full subscriptions.

Public Broadcasters move to the sideline

Public broadcasters retreat from competitive sports rights, focusing instead on news, culture, investigative journalism, and niche sports. While they maintain a role in shaping national discourse, their influence on live sports diminishes.

Implications

For fans, the scenario promises high-quality, immersive coverage—but also exacerbates inequality in access. Those unwilling or unable to pay are left behind, creating potential backlash or even political intervention. For vendors, this scenario consolidates market power among a few platforms, making them must-have partners for federations—but also placing enormous technical and operational pressure on them to deliver globally, at scale. Cloud and AI will be used to be able to distribute to everyone and everywhere and traditional distribution will become more and more obsolete, leaving the traditional aggregators and cable at the pitch sideline.

2.   The Hybrid Ecosystem – Collaboration Between Global and Local

The closest to today’s world is probably the hybrid ecosystem, a scenario where global streamers and regional/national broadcasters coexist, collaborating in complex distribution arrangements.

Co-distribution dominates

Tech platforms deliver premium coverage, while public and private broadcasters retain limited packages—for example, national team games, finals, and curated highlights. Fans can choose where and how they consume, creating a multi-layered ecosystem of content.

Content & Formats

• Full matches remain accessible on larger screens for subscribers, balancing traditional and digital-first viewing habits.

• Snackable content thrives on social media and interactive feeds.

Public Broadcasters reduced to cultural touchpoint content

National teams, the Olympics, and major finals remain within public broadcasters’ remit. These events are positioned as cultural connectors, ensuring accessibility while allowing platforms to monetize other matches and deep-dive content.

Implications

While there is a lot of choice and flexibility, complexity and subscription fatigue increase. Lots of time and energy is lost in negotiating joint rights agreements, revenue-sharing arrangements, and platform-specific delivery requirements - often with a negative outcome for the viewers. For broadcasters, partnerships become essential, but innovation in user experience, interactivity, and branding are required to remain relevant.

3.   D2C - Federations Take the Wheel

Picking up on the recent developments, in this scenario, federations and leagues themselves become broadcasters, often partnering with tech giants but increasingly producing content direct-to-consumer.

Less rights - shorter chain

Licensing to broadcasters and other platforms decreases. UEFA, FIFA, EPL, Bundesliga, and others leverage OTT platforms, apps, and AI-driven personalization to control both production and distribution. Revenue streams diversify through subscriptions, in-app microtransactions, and gamified experiences.

Content & Formats bring a variety of new flavours

• Gamified streams: multiple camera angles, interactive stats, and personalized commentary.

• Influencer-led and social-first commentary: blending eSports-style engagement with live sport.

• AI-driven personalization: viewers receive recommendations tailored to their favorite teams, players, and types of coverage.

Public Broadcasters are only responsible for public interest

Public broadcasters are marginalized for sports, with access restricted to “public interest” events. Their role shifts to curating cultural significance rather than competing in the entertainment arms race.

Implications

Sports becomes a Netflix-Twitch hybrid: part immersive entertainment, part traditional live coverage. Fans enjoy unprecedented personalization, but legacy broadcasters face existential challenges, and tech vendors must provide robust platforms capable of supporting federations’ ambitions. While this is all new and might attract younger audiences, the traditional audience miss their simple experience.

Gamification - but part of the match

These three initial scenarios alone show how fragmented — or radically unified — our industry could become.

But they’re only part of the picture. In my next article, I’ll dive into two more possible outcomes: one where hyper-fragmentation creates chaos, and another where public regulation reshapes the rules entirely. Stay tuned during this IBC for the next update!